Global CEOs see a ‘mild and short’ recession, yet optimistic about global economy over 3-year horizon

KPMG’s 2022 CEO Outlook found that eight out of 10 CEOs anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, with more than half expecting it to be mild and short.

It also found that 70 per cent believe a recession will disrupt anticipated growth, however, there is rising confidence in longer-term growth of the global economy and their own companies’ prospects.

The survey, which asked more than 1,300 CEOs at the world’s largest businesses about their strategies and outlook, revealed that 58 per cent of leaders expect a recession to be mild and short. Fourteen per cent of senior executives identified a recession among the most pressing concerns today — up slightly from early 2022 (9 per cent), while pandemic fatigue topped the list (15 per cent).

Over the next year, more than eight out of 10 (86 per cent) global CEOs anticipate a recession to hit, with 71 per cent predicting it will impact company earnings by up to 10 per cent. A strong majority of senior executives believe that a recession will disrupt anticipated growth (73 per cent). However, three-quarters (76 per cent) have already taken precautionary steps ahead of a looming recession.

Despite those concerns, senior executives also feel markedly more confident about the resilience of the economy over the next six months (73 per cent) than they did in February (60 per cent), when KPMG surveyed 500 CEOs for its CEO Outlook Pulse survey.

Around 71 per cent of leaders are confident about the global economy’s growth prospects over the next three years (up from 60 per cent in early 2022) and nearly nine in 10 (85 per cent) are confident about their organisation’s growth over the next three years.