1 in 3 employers intend to make redundancies in near future

According to the latest survey by human resources body the CIPD and Adecco Group, the jobs market will continue to shrink in the next quarter as the number of employers planning to make redundancies continues to exceed the number of employers planning to hire.

The proportion of employers intending to make redundancies over the next three months has increased to 33 per cent, rising 11 per cent since last quarter, the figures revealed.

The survey data also revealed that the redundancy activity will be broad-based, with IT, manufacturing and construction sectors the most likely to be affected.

"This is the weakest set of data we've seen for several years," said Gerwyn Davies, CIPD senior labour market analyst.

"Until now, redundancies have been low - no doubt due to the Job Retention Scheme - but we expect to see more redundancies come through this autumn, especially in the private sector once the scheme closes.”

While the survey pointed to a modest improvement in recruitment intentions since the spring quarter, it also suggested that they continue to lag well below the levels seen in previous years.

Nearly half (49 per cent) of employers responding to the summer survey said they are planning to recruit in the second quarter of 2020 – up 9 per cent from spring but down 17 per cent from the winter 2019/20 quarter. Employment confidence has risen most sharply in manufacturing (+22) and administrative and support services (+18).

According to CIPD, economic uncertainty will also continue to weigh down pay, with the survey showing basic pay expectations among employers for the 12 months to June 2021 at a record low of 1 per cent.

Just over seven in 10 employers surveyed intend to review wages in the next 12 months, while three in 10 intend to postpone their next pay decision for over a year, down slightly from 1 in three in the spring quarter.